盖茨夫妇2019年公开信：尽管有些意外，但未来仍值得期待

　　每年，盖茨夫妇都会发布一封年度公开信，一起回顾过去的一年。2月中旬，夫妇二人公布了第10封公开信。在信中，他们回顾了2018年的9个surprises。虽然现在世界面临的一些问题，但是每个人都在身体力行地努力。

　　所以面对“这个世界会好吗”的一问，我想我们可以乐观地说，因为有善良的我们，这个世界一定会变好的。

　　How would you describe 2018?

　　你怎么评价2018年?

　　Was it what you expected?

　　是你想象的那样吗?

　　We’d probably say no. From especially devastating natural disasters on the one hand to record numbers of women campaigning for office on the other, 2018 felt to us like a series of surprises. The world looking backward from today is very different from what we pictured a couple years ago looking forward.

　　我们的答案恐怕是否定的。无论是毁灭性的自然灾害，还是参加竞选的女性数量创下的记录，对我们来说，2018年发生了很多意料之外的事情。从今天回望过去，这个世界已经和我们几年前展望的世界大相径庭。

　　A benefit of surprises is that they’re often a prod to action. It can gnaw at people to realize that the realities of the world don’t match their expectations for it. Some surprises help people see that the status quo needs to change. Some surprises underscore that transformation is happening already.

　　惊喜的好处是它们经常激励我们行动。这些意料之外的事情困扰着人们，让他们意识到现实与自己的期望并不匹配。有些意外让我们意识到现状需要改变，有些意外则强调改变已经在发生。

　　In this year’s annual letter, we’re highlighting nine more things that have surprised us along this journey. Some worry us. Others inspire us. All of them are prodding us to action. We hope they do the same for you, because that’s how the world gets better.

　　在今年的年度信里，我们突出强调一路走来的九个意外。有些让我们忧虑，有些给我们启迪，但无一不激励我们行动。我们希望这些意外对你们有同样的影响，因为这样，世界才能变得更好。

　　SURPRISE 1

　　Africa is the youngest continent.

　　非洲是最年轻的大陆。

　　The world keeps getting older, but Africa stays (nearly) the same age. It sounds confusing, but it makes sense when you break it down.

　　全球老龄化趋势仍在持续，但非洲的年龄(几乎)没变。这听起来令人费解，仔细分析一下发现言之有理。

　　The global median age is on the rise. In every part of the world, people are living longer. As more children survive to adulthood, women are having fewer kids than ever before. The result is a global population that’s creeping slowly toward middle age.

　　全球的中值年龄不断提高，在世界的每个地方，人们的寿命更长。随着越来越多的孩子能长大成人，妇女的生育数量比之前下降，带来的结果就是全球人口年龄正在慢慢地向中年靠拢。

　　Except in Africa. The median age there is just 18. In North America, it is 35. And the number of young Africans is expected to rise in the decades to come.

　　但非洲却是例外。非洲的中值年龄只有18岁，北美的则是35岁。未来几十年，非洲的年轻人数量有望上升。

　　When economists describe the conditions under which countries prosper, one of the factors they stress is “human capital,” which is another way of saying that the future depends on young people’s access to high-quality health and education services. Health and education are the twin engines of economic growth.

　　经济学家谈到经济繁荣的诸多要素，他们会强调其中的一个因素是“人力资本”。换言之，未来取决于年轻人获得优质的健康和教育服务的机会。健康和教育是经济增长的双引擎。

　　If sub-Saharan Africa commits to investing in its young people, the region could double its share of the global labor force by 2050, unlocking a better life for hundreds of millions of people.

　　如果撒哈拉以南的非洲国家能对年轻人进行投资，那么到2050年，该地区的劳动力在全球的占比会翻一番，并为亿万民众开启更好的生活。

　　Girls’ education, especially, is among the most powerful forces on the planet. Educated girls are healthier. They are wealthier. And their families benefit, too. The more education a woman has, the better equipped she is to raise healthy children.

　　尤其是女孩的教育堪称全球最强大的力量。受过教育的女孩更健康、更富裕。她们的家庭也会受益。女性受到的教育水平越多，就更能养育健康的子女。

　　SURPRISE 2

　　At-home DNA tests can find serial killers—and could also help prevent premature birth.

　　家庭基因检测既能帮助发现“连环杀手”，又能预防早产。

　　When police used genetic test results to catch the Golden State Killer last year, the story made headlines around the world. But it’s not the only discovery to come out of at-home DNA tests. By looking at more than 40,000 samples voluntarily submitted by 23andMe users, scientists discovered a potential link between preterm labor and six genes—including one that regulates how the body uses a mineral called selenium.

　　去年，一则警察利用基因检测结果抓获“金州杀手”的新闻轰动世界。但家庭基因检测的发现不止于此。基因检测公司23andMe的用户自愿提交了四万多份样本，通过分析这些样本，科学家们发现了早产与六个基因之间的潜在关联，其中的一个基因负责调节人体如何利用矿物质硒。

　　Some people have a gene that prevents them from processing selenium properly. The 23andMe study (which our foundation helped fund) found that expectant mothers who carry that gene were more likely to give birth early. This suggests that selenium plays a role in determining when a woman begins labor.

　　有些人的基因妨碍硒的正常代谢。由盖茨基金会资助的23andMe研究发现，携带这种基因的孕妇更易早产，这表明硒对产妇的分娩时间有重要影响。

　　Understanding what causes prematurity is hugely important. Researchers won’t know until later this year how exactly the mineral affects preterm birth risk. But if the link proves substantial, selenium could one day be a cheap and easy solution to help women extend their pregnancy to full term.

　　了解早产的原因非常重要。到今年年底，研究者们将有望搞清楚硒对早产风险的确切影响。如果二者之间的关联足够显著，硒有可能成为帮助孕妇足月生产经济、易行的解决方法。

　　For the vast majority of preterm births, we can’t identify the cause, nor do we know why some groups of women are more prone to delivering their babies early. But here’s one thing we do know: Prematurity is not binary. It matters a lot how early a baby is born; a baby born at 36 weeks is much better off than a baby born at 34 weeks. Our goal should not be to prevent prematurity categorically, which may be impossible anyway. Instead, it should be to extend pregnancies closer to full term for everyone. And we’re finally starting to fill the gaps in our knowledge about how to do so.

　　我们无法识别大多数早产发生的原因，也不知道为什么有些孕妇更容易早产。但我们很清楚地知道一件事：早产不是二元的。一个婴儿生产的时间有重要的影响——36周出生的婴儿要比34周出生的婴儿健康得多。我们的目标不应该是绝对地杜绝早产，这也不可能发生。我们的目标应该是将孕期尽量接近足月。现在，我们终于开始填补这方面的知识空白。