中国大城市发动新一轮限贷限购：冷却过热的市场

　　Big Chinese cities have launched a new round of lending curbs and purchase restrictions in an effort to cool overheated property markets, as official media warn that some have veered towards a bubble.

　　中国大城市发动了新一轮限贷限购行动，以冷却过热的房地产市场。官方媒体警告称，有些城市的房地产市场已朝着泡沫化方向演变。

　　Sky-high prices in cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are stoking anger, even among relatively well-off professionals.

　　北京、上海、深圳等城市过高的房价正在引发民怨，就连相对富裕的专业人士阶层也怨声载道。

　　Meanwhile, controlling financial risk has emerged as the dominant economic policy theme for 2017. At the conclusion of the annual session of China’s rubber-stamp parliament last week, the government pledged to “contain excessive home price rises in hot markets”.

　　与此同时，控制金融风险已成为2017年最重要的经济政策主题。在上周中国“橡皮图章式”议会年度会议的闭幕式上，中国政府承诺“遏制热点城市房价过快上涨”。

　　On Zhihu, a Chinese crowdsourced question-and-answer platform, a thread about Beijing house prices has attracted 17.8m page views. In the top-ranked post, a graduate of the prestigious Peking University describes the reason for his painful decision to leave the city: despite a promising job at a top-ranked research institute, he could not afford a home for his family.

　　在中国社会化问答平台“知乎”上，关于北京房价的话题吸引到的网页浏览量已达1780万。在排名第一的热贴中，知名高校北京大学的一名毕业生讲述了自己为什么作出了离开这座城市的痛苦决定：他虽然在一所顶尖研究所拥有一份很有前途的工作，却无力为家人买一套房子。

　　“Before and after leaving Beijing, I cried twice,” he wrote. “The first time was when I sent my resignation letter to my boss. That 80-something academic was always so kind to me. When I told him I was leaving, he was very surprised.”

　　“离开北京前后哭过两次，”他写道，“第一次是离职时向我的领导打报告时。80多岁的老院士，一直和我很谈得来，我和他说我要走，他很意外。”

　　In recent days, authorities in Beijing and four provincial capitals — Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Changsha, and Shijiazhuang — have all introduced new property tightening measures. They include higher downpayment requirements on second homes and restrictions on purchases of second or third homes. The moves add to restrictions rolled out in other capitals this month, including Nanjing, Qingdao, and Sanya in the resort island of Hainan.

　　近几日，北京以及广州、郑州、长沙、石家庄四座省会城市的政府都出台了新的收紧房地产市场的措施，包括提高二套房首付比例和限制购买二套或以上住房。南京、青岛和三亚等城市本月也出台了限购措施。

　　Nationally, home prices were 11.8 per cent higher in February than a year earlier, following 12.2 per cent growth in January, according to Reuters’ calculations based on the government’s 70-city survey. But other indicators suggest the previous round of property tightening measures, which began last autumn, has not had the desired impact.

　　根据路透社基于中国官方的70个大中城市房价调查所做的计算，2月份中国全国房价同比上涨11.8%，低于1月份12.2%的同比涨幅。但从其他指标来看，去年秋天启动的上一轮房地产市场紧缩措施并未收到想要的效果。

　　Property investment grew at its fastest pace in two years in January and February at an annual rate 8.9 per cent, while sales accelerated to 25.1 per cent growth in floor space terms. China’s statistics bureau combines January and February to eliminate seasonal distortions caused by the lunar new year holiday.

　　今年头两个月，房地产投资同比增长8.9%，增速为两年来最快。商品房销售面积的增速也提高至25.1%。中国国家统计局合并统计今年头两个月的数据，为的是剔除农历新年假期造成的季节性扭曲。

　　“There is no doubt that in some cities the property market’s ‘high fever’ hasn’t subsided, and there are even signs of an evolution towards a bubble,” read a Monday analysis in Financial News, a newspaper owned by the People’s Bank of China, the central bank. “The hidden risks and potential damage cannot be ignored.”

　　中国央行旗下《金融时报》周一刊发的一篇分析文章称：“毫无疑问，部分城市楼市’高烧’不退，甚至朝着泡沫化方向演变，其所暗藏的风险和带来的冲击不容忽视。”

　　Beijing policymakers are attempting to strike a balance between curbing financial risk and social anger, and avoiding a sharp slowdown in construction activity and related commodity demand, which would threaten the broader economy.

　　北京的政策制定者试图在遏制金融风险、平息社会不满和避免建筑活动及相关大宗商品需求大幅放缓之间找到平衡，因为这种放缓会威胁到更广泛的经济。

　　Even as big cities showed signs of overheating, the strong property market in 2016 was crucial in enabling the government’s gross domestic product growth target to be met. Property was especially important in sustaining growth in fixed-asset investment at a time when manufacturers cut back spending on new machinery and buildings.

　　尽管大城市出现过热迹象，但在2016年，强劲的房地产市场在帮助实现中国政府设定的国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标方面发挥了关键作用。在制造业企业纷纷削减在新机械和厂房方面的开支时，房地产对维系固定资产投资增长尤其重要。

　　“The sustainability of the property market rebound, which mainly depends on future mortgage policies, is unclear,” Gao Ting, head of China strategy at UBS Securities in Hong Kong, wrote on Monday. “We think the trend of the property market will remain uncertain and may bring downside risks to economic growth in the second half.”

　　瑞银证券驻香港的中国首席策略分析师高挺周一写道：“房地产市场的反弹能否持续，主要取决于未来房贷政策，尚有待观察。中期来看，房地产走势仍然面临不确定性，或给下半年经济增长带来下行风险。”